Why Tracker Data Doesn't Match Facebook: Solving Registration Discrepancies for Gambling PWA Campaigns

If you've run traffic to gambling PWAs (Progressive Web Apps), you know the frustration: your Facebook Ads Manager shows one number of registrations (or FTDs), while your tracker (Keitaro, Voluum) shows a completely different figure. This isn't an abstract problem-it's a direct leak in your budget and a distortion of your optimization data.
A discrepancy of 5-7% can be considered a technical margin of error. But when the numbers diverge by 20, 30, or 50%, it's a critical red flag. Most often, the root cause lies in the data transmission chain.

Core Issue: A Broken Attribution Chain

To understand where the failure occurs, visualize the user's path:

1. A user sees your ad in Facebook (Meta).
2. They click it. Facebook generates a unique identifier for this click-a fbclid or click_id.
3. The user lands on a PWA. (Note: This PWA often mimics the design of an App Store/Google Play page, offering an option to "download" the app. Clicking this typically opens the casino platform within the app's internal browser where the registration finally takes place.)
4. Upon successful registration, the PWA should send data (a postback) to your tracker (Keitaro/Voluum), passing along the captured click_id.
5. The tracker, having received the conversion, sends its own postback to Facebook, confirming: "The click with this click_id led to a registration."
6. Facebook credits this conversion in your report.

If the click_id is lost or corrupted at any stage, the chain breaks. Facebook cannot link the conversion back to its click, and it won't appear in your Ads Manager reports, even though your tracker recorded it.

Detailed Breakdown of Discrepancy Causes

1. Technical Postback Issues (PWA → Tracker)

This is the most common cause of lost conversions. The problem lies in the incorrect transfer of parameters from your PWA to the tracker.

• Loss of ClickID: The most frequent error. When generating a tracking link, you get a URL with macros, e.g., https://your-pwa.com/?click_id={clickid}. The PWA must correctly read this click_id from the URL and pass it in the postback upon registration. Sloppy development can cause this parameter to be lost.
• Incorrect Postback Format: The tracker expects data at a specific URL with strictly defined parameters (sum, status, txid). Wrong order, spelling, or missing mandatory parameters will result in the tracker failing to record the conversion, even though it happened.
• PWA-Side Errors: Delays in sending the postback due to JavaScript errors, server crashes, or request blocking by the user's browser (AdBlock, aggressive security settings).

2. Faulty Affiliate Network Integration (Tracker → Network → Facebook)

To receive credit for an FTD, the tracker often needs to pass the conversion further-to the Affiliate Network. This creates a second weak link.

• Dual Attribution Models: The attribution model used by the affiliate network (e.g., Last Click) may differ from Facebook's (e.g., 7-day click). This leads to natural discrepancies in counting "valid" conversions.
• Conversion Validation (Approval): The affiliate network may manually or automatically screen deposits for fraud. During this review, the conversion is not confirmed and is not relayed back to Facebook. If the deposit is later rejected, the discrepancy becomes permanent.
• Missing Postback from Network to Facebook: Not all networks automatically send confirmed FTDs back to Facebook. This often requires additional setup via API or a direct request to your affiliate manager.

3. Causes on the Facebook (Meta) Side

Even with perfect tracker setup, discrepancies can arise from the advertising platform's own mechanisms.

• Attribution Model & Conversion Window: Ensure the "Complete Registration" or "Purchase" event in Facebook Pixel uses the same attribution model (e.g., 7-day click) as your tracker. Different windows yield different numbers.
• Data Processing Delay (Facebook Aggregated Event Measurement): Facebook does not process data in real time. This is especially noticeable during peak hours or after weekends. Conversions can "trickle in" to reports with a delay of 24-48 hours, while they appear instantly in your tracker.
• Impact of iOS & Browser Restrictions: Apple's privacy policies (App Tracking Transparency - ATT) and cookie restrictions in browsers (like Safari's ITP) severely limit attribution data. Facebook may simply not receive enough information to correctly match a conversion to a click.

Practical Diagnostic Checklist

1. Check Basic Settings:
   • Time Zones: They must be identical in Facebook Ads Manager, your tracker, and the affiliate network.
   • Facebook Event: Are you tracking the correct event ("Complete Registration" vs. "Purchase")? This dictates the counting logic.
2. Test the Chain Manually:
   • Create a test registration using a unique tag (e.g., test_123).
   • Check your tracker's logs (Keitaro/Voluum have detailed postback logs) to see if the request arrived and contained the correct click_id.
   • Verify if the test conversion appears in the Facebook report after 1-2 hours.
3. Analyze Discrepancies by Channel/GEO:
   • If the problem exists only in certain GEOs (e.g., only Tier-1), the cause might be in the affiliate network's anti-fraud systems.
   • If discrepancies are large on mobile traffic but not on desktop, the cause is likely iOS/Android restrictions.

Conclusion: A Systematic Approach Over Guesswork

Data discrepancies are not a "feature"-they are a signal of a technical problem. Solving them requires a systematic view of the entire funnel: from the click in Facebook to the confirmed deposit in the affiliate network.
Tune each hop of the chain (PWA → tracker → network → Facebook) and align attribution models to stop losing conversions-and budget.